Method for predictive cost calculation of machined parts for quotes, taking into account the risk of changes in production

Cost estimation for machined components is of central importance for contract manufacturers during the quotation phase. Currently, this is usually done manually by experienced employees who check technical drawings, work plans, and machine hourly rates from various systems. In practice, planned and actual production routes often do not match. Short-term orders, breakdowns of machines, absence of staff or deviating setup times lead to rescheduling, which has not been taken into account in the calculation. This results in significant deviations between target and actual manufacturing costs. These uncertainties cause economic risks and can lead to incorrect quotation prices.

Objectives

The objective of the project is to develop a method for predictive cost calculation of machined parts. Data-based models are used to identify rescheduling risks at an early stage and integrate them into the quotation phase. For this purpose, production routes, machine availability, and typical disruptive factors are analyzed and mapped in a decision-making logic. This forms the basis for a software-supported assistance system that enables reliable and efficient quotation calculation. This increases the competitiveness of contract manufacturers and improves planning reliability in production.

Benefits

• Increased calculation reliability - Greater transparency of cost risks
• Time savings in the quotation phase - Automation of sub-processes

Approach

In the SzenoKalk project, the Institute of Production Engineering and Machine Tools is developing methods for predictive cost calculation of machined components. First, technical drawings, CAD, and planning data are used to automatically identify manufacturing characteristics and suitable machines. On this basis, a decision model is created that quantifies rescheduling risks due to disruptions, order changes, and capacity fluctuations. The results are implemented in a software prototype that enables transparent and efficient quotation calculation.

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Contact Marcus Nein via email at nein@ifw.uni.hannover.de or by phone at +49 511 762 4365.